Ford Explorer — NHTSA complaint, recall and bulletin analysis PulsCar analysis of NHTSA public data, September 2026 License: CC BY 4.0 ------------------------------------------------------------------ SOURCE FILES ------------------------------------------------------------------ NHTSA Office of Defects Investigation public flat files, loaded into a local SQLite database: - COMPLAINTS: 777,040 owner complaints received 1 January 2015 through 8 September 2026. "received" is the date NHTSA logged the report, not the date of failure. - RECALLS (RCL flat file): one row per make/model/model-year per campaign. Campaign counts are DISTINCT campaign numbers. - MANUFACTURER COMMUNICATIONS (TSB flat file): one row per make/model/model-year per document. Document counts are DISTINCT NHTSA document IDs. All queries were run 18 September 2026. ------------------------------------------------------------------ BASE SET ------------------------------------------------------------------ SELECT * FROM complaints WHERE make='FORD' AND model='EXPLORER'; -> 15,238 complaints, model years 1995-2026. All-complaint baselines over the whole 777,040-row file: towed 5.11% crash 4.37% fire 1.82% Ford Explorer, whole set: towed 4.24%, crash 2.54%, fire 0.70%; 515 injuries, 8 deaths; median mileage 68,000 over 8,584 rows carrying a usable odometer. Mileage rule: rows with miles <= 0 or >= 400,000 are dropped before any median or quartile. Component field (NHTSA stores several components per complaint, separated by "|"; split and counted separately, so these overlap): STEERING 3,037 (19.93%) UNKNOWN OR OTHER 2,806 ENGINE 1,807 STRUCTURE 1,805 POWER TRAIN 1,628 STRUCTURE:BODY 1,303 ELECTRICAL SYSTEM 1,130 FUEL/PROPULSION 608 SUSPENSION 565 AIR BAGS 467 SERVICE BRAKES 339 ------------------------------------------------------------------ TOPIC SETS (regular expressions over the narrative, case-insensitive) ------------------------------------------------------------------ Rear suspension toe link (168): toe ?link|toe rod|rear suspension (link|arm)|cross[- ]axis ball joint Exhaust odor / carbon monoxide in the cabin (1,272): (exhaust|fume|carbon monoxide|\bco\b) (smell|odor|odour|fume|inside| in the cabin|enter) | smell\w* (of )?(exhaust|fumes) | carbon monoxide Coolant loss or water pump (515): (coolant|antifreeze).{0,60}(loss|low|leak|disappear)|water pump Rearview or backup camera (418): (back ?up|rear ?view|reverse) camera Transmission shifting, gear or park (246): (transmission|shift\w*|gear).{0,40}(harsh|rough|slip|jerk|hesitat| delay)|park (position|pawl)|rolled away Power transfer unit or transfer case (120): power transfer unit|\bptu\b|transfer case Wheel bearing or hub (42): wheel bearing|hub assembly SAMPLE READING (required before publishing a keyword count): - Toe link: 15 of the 168 were read at random and in full. All 15 were genuinely about that part. No false positives found. - Exhaust odor: 15 of the 1,272 were read at random and in full. All 15 were genuinely about cabin exhaust odor or carbon monoxide. No false positives found. - Finding no miss in 15 reads does not prove the rate is zero; it puts a loose ceiling on it. These are approximate counts. IMPORTANT LIMITATION ON THE TOE LINK SET, STATED IN THE ARTICLE: The 168 mix two kinds of report — owners whose link fractured, and owners writing about recall administration (a letter that never came, a dealer with no parts, a VIN that came back clear). Several of the sampled 15 are the administrative kind. The crash share (11.31%) and tow share (17.86%) are therefore properties of a set that includes paperwork complaints. They are NOT "11% of toe links break and cause a crash", and the event rate among actual fractures is higher than the figure, not lower. OUTCOMES BY TOPIC (per-topic share, against baselines above): toe link 168 towed 17.86% crash 11.31% median 100,000 mi coolant / pump 515 towed 9.32% crash 0.39% median 100,000 mi power transfer 120 towed 5.83% crash 1.67% median 72,647 mi transmission 246 towed 4.07% crash 2.03% median 71,001 mi wheel bearing 42 towed 16.67% crash 9.52% median 102,000 mi rearview camera 418 towed 0.48% crash 1.91% median 75,000 mi exhaust odor 1,272 towed 0.71% crash 1.02% median 27,000 mi The wheel bearing set (42) is too small to carry a claim and no percentage from it is used in the article. TOE LINK BY MODEL YEAR: 2014 (40), 2016 (29), 2013 (28), 2017 (22), 2015 (21) — the years named in 16V-245, 21V-537 and 26V-101. ------------------------------------------------------------------ THE 2020+ GENERATION ------------------------------------------------------------------ Complaints with model year 2020 or later: 2,134 of 15,238, median mileage 26,989 over 608 rows. Model year 2020 alone: 1,204 complaints, median 22,000 miles. Component field across those 2,134: POWER TRAIN 664, UNKNOWN OR OTHER 391, ELECTRICAL SYSTEM 300, ENGINE 213, SERVICE BRAKES 130, VISIBILITY/WIPER 118, FUEL/PROPULSION 86, SUSPENSION 77, BACK OVER PREVENTION 75, EXTERIOR LIGHTING 70. Of the 246 transmission-shifting complaints in the whole file, 93 are model year 2020. Caveat carried into the article: a 2020 vehicle whose median complaint mileage is 22,000 has not lived the life the 2013-2017 cars have. Its record describes early failures, not lifetime cost. ------------------------------------------------------------------ RECALLS AND BULLETINS ------------------------------------------------------------------ Distinct recall campaigns naming a Ford Explorer: 102 (published in explorer-recall-campaigns.csv with populations and filing dates). Distinct manufacturer communications naming a Ford Explorer: 930. Documents read for the article, from the RCL and TSB flat files and from static.nhtsa.gov (18 September 2026): Recalls 26V-101, 21V-537, 16V-245, 24V-635 (toe link family and the Chicago-built intake valve campaign) Recalls 26V-402, 26V-123, 26V-117, 25V-455, 25V-393, 26V-451 (the 2020+ generation) Investigations PE16-008 and EA17-002 (cabin carbon monoxide) Ford service messages SSM 47993, SSM 45926, SSM 46522 (power transfer unit); SSM 51074, SSM 51032, SSM 49870, SSM 50748, SSM 51754 (2020+ cooling and transmission fluid cross-contamination) WHAT WE LOOKED FOR AND DID NOT FIND: no Ford bulletin in NHTSA's manufacturer-communication file names the chain-driven internal water pump on the earlier 3.5-litre Explorer engines. The article says so and tells the reader to confirm the arrangement at the counter rather than presenting the engine list as documented. ------------------------------------------------------------------ LIMITATIONS ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1. Complaints are self-reported, unverified, and not normalized by how many vehicles are on the road. They are NOT failure rates. 2. Counts are shaped by publicity: recalls, investigations and news coverage cause owners to file. 3. The file begins 1 January 2015, so nothing here describes anything earlier, and the 2015 bucket is a partial view of what came before. 4. Mileage is entered by the owner and is missing on 44% of rows. 5. Model year is the owner's statement, not a VIN decode, and the file does not carry engine or drivetrain, so no set here can be split by engine or by AWD versus RWD. 6. Keyword categories measure words, not events. FILES explorer-topics-vs-baseline.csv explorer-complaints-by-model-year.csv explorer-components.csv explorer-recall-campaigns.csv method.txt (this file)